Surveying the populous field of GOP candidates this week, it might seem far-fetched to imagine Jeb Bush as the party’s nominee at this time next year. Since throwing his hat in the ring for the presidency in mid-June, the stalwart Bush hasn’t found a footing in the Republican race. He stumbled awkwardly through Sunday’s interview with CNN’s Jake Tapper and is stuck in fifth place in polls continually dominated by the inexplicable Donald Trump—who on Monday became the longest-lasting “fad” candidate since at least 2004. But before we get too far afield on speculation that Trump will seize the party’s nomination, and before we write off as wishful thinking his super PAC strategist’s argument for why Jeb’s still the one to beat, it’s instructive to remember one key point: Republicans are the conservative party, which is more than just a political affiliation—it’s also a perennial mind-set that applies to whom they choose to top their tickets.
Just over a half-century ago, as the Republican Party convened in San Francisco’s Cow Palace to determine its 1964 presidential nominee, the GOP faithful divided viciously over two potential standard-bearers. The first was the Republican establishment candidate, New York Gov. Nelson Rockefeller, a moderate. The second was Barry Goldwater, the senator from Arizona, a conservative firebrand who had charged up an increasingly large and vocal conservative wing of the party with his clarion call, “Extremism in the defense of liberty is no vice.” After an impassioned convention floor battle, Goldwater emerged as the party’s nominee and marched on to the campaign trail against incumbent President Lyndon B. Johnson. Goldwater’s campaign slogan: “In Your Heart You Know He’s Right.”
Maybe. But on Election Day, voters went “All the Way with LBJ,” who pulled a landslide 61 percent of the popular vote and earned the biggest presidential election victory in U.S. history to that point. Goldwater, seen as a trigger-happy extremist at a time when Cold War tensions with the Soviet Union pervaded foreign policy doctrine, proved a disastrous candidate. From that point on, the GOP has never again gone impulsively with its heart, but rather has chosen cautiously with its head.
Since 1964, in every single election, Republicans have consistently chosen as their nominees either the incumbent president, the runner-up in the previous presidential primary or an otherwise establishment GOP brand name. Despite the spectacular rise of Trump, Republicans like proven commodities; the names Nixon, Dole or Bush have appeared on 11 of the past 14 Republican presidential tickets. Sure, they’ll flirt around a bit, but history proves that Republicans ultimately go home with the familiar—and conservative—choice.
Trump’s surprising staying power has many wondering whether it could be different this time. After all, the latest NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll shows Trump leading the pack of 14 GOP presidential candidates at 25 percent, trailed at 22 percent by Ben Carson, another contender who has never held elective office. Compare that with Jeb Bush, the big-name establishment candidate who’s running fifth with just 8 percent. Even Bill Clinton conceded that Trump could swing the Republican nomination, telling CNN’s Fareed Zakaria that Trump is a “master brander” with a lot of “pizazz” and “zip.” The former president said that, with so many candidates running, voters are trying to make distinctions, so putting “a personal stamp on it so people identify with who you are accounts for something, certainly in the beginning.”
But that last phrase, “in the beginning,” is critical. Because if history holds, Republican voters in the end will go with the most safe and viable choice—even if it means holding their noses all the way to the voting booth.
Think back four years ago. That’s when the GOP began courting a succession of flavors-of-the-month in what sometimes appeared as a desperate, quixotic quest to choose anyone but Mitt Romney, who had been a clear second-place contender for the nomination in 2008. First there was Michele Bachmann, followed by Rick Perry, Herman Cain, Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum. With the exception of Bachmann, they all polled better than 25 percent in the early going. And all, after having their moment in the warm sun of high approval ratings, were unceremoniously cast aside into the shadows.
Ultimately, the party predictably marched down the aisle with the safe choice: Gov. Romney. He may not have been the most delectable choice, but in the end the party found him the most electable candidate. No, Romney didn’t end up prevailing in 2012, but he almost certainly did better than any of his Republican challengers would have in his place.
So, is Republican apoplexy enough this time to upset convention? It's doubtful. Voters are actually less angry than they were after the previous presidential election. According to the Pew Research Center, voter anger, which boiled up to 30 percent in 2013, has since simmered to 19 percent, commensurate with America’s slow, steady economic growth and a declining unemployment rate, which has fallen from just under 8 percent in January 2013 to 5.1 percent in September.
The only real difference now, it seems, is Trump, whose compelling, you-can’t-look-away-despite-yourself shamelessness and reality star wattage seem to have lit up his approval meter brighter and longer than expected. But Trump’s poll numbers, which will probably remain in respectable double-digits through the fall, will almost certainly tumble when primary crunch time comes. It’s one thing for voters to sound off to a pollster; it’s quite another for them to poke a chad or pull a lever for president. Practicality will ultimately trump, well, Trump. Even if his poll numbers remain in the 20s, having the support of somewhere between a fifth and a quarter of the vote won’t be enough for the Donald to win elections once the Republican herd thins and becomes less fractured.
Jeb Bush may be no more exciting than Romney was four years ago—Trump has repeatedly mocked him as “low energy,” and Bush has failed to score knockout blows in the two GOP debates—but he’s a solid choice as a national candidate. His eight-year tenure in Florida’s statehouse is largely considered successful. Plus, there’s the proven Bush name, which has graced a total of six national GOP tickets—five of which have prevailed in national elections. Add to that Bush’s ability to raise money, ensuring that he’ll endure; in the third quarter, despite a slow start to his campaign, he took in $13.4 million, coming up second behind Carson, who raised $20 million, but well ahead of his chief establishment rival, Marco Rubio, who brought in $5.7 million. Bush’s solvency, combined with an effective establishment campaign organization that Bush will likely continue to mount, bode well for the former governor once the real voting starts early in 2016. If past is prologue, Bush will come out on top for the GOP, even if his eponymous campaign slogan—"Jeb!"—doesn’t exactly mirror the party’s current enthusiasm toward him.
Come next year, will GOP voters follow historical patterns and go with Bush as the most electable candidate? We’ll see. But will they make Trump their candidate? No. In their heads, they’ll know he’s wrong.
