Four weeks ago, we were predicting the demise of Donald Trump. Today, his grip on the GOP nominating contest seems as strong as ever.
Twenty-one of the 30 political experts we survey each week gave first-place marks to Trump this week, his highest total since Week 3 of our Power Rankings survey.
Trump’s candidacy appears to be making the transition from an upstart spectacle to a real presidential campaign. He is even raising money despite telling people he does not need them to donate.
“I actually had a chance to attend a Trump rally in Richmond, Virginia last week, and I was struck by the evolution of Trump’s stump speech,” said Emory University’s Andra Gillespie. “He is still invoking the same themes and the same bluster, but his stump speech is evolving into something that looks more traditional. It suggests that Trump may be taking this campaign more seriously than we gave him credit for earlier this year.”
Democratic pollster Margie Omero agreed: “People rejoiced in the last few weeks, thinking Trump’s numbers have faltered but they’ve rebounded some. It seems he stays strong no matter what the press says.”
Part of Trump’s return to dominance is that his challengers keep losing traction. Carly Fiorina took over first place in our Power Rankings after the second Republican debate, but she has quickly faded.
“Fiorina failed to build on debate success,” said Carl Leubsdorf of The Dallas Morning News. She had 13 first-place votes from our panel in Week 4. This week, she had none.
Ben Carson (three first-place votes) and Marco Rubio (four) remain in the hunt, though Rubio was not helped by questions about exactly how much money he raised in the third quarter of this year.
“The depth of Carson’s small dollar support is a unique advantage that no other candidate in the field matches,” said IMGE’s Phil Musser. “It’s a gift that will keep on giving and the result of smart early investment on his behalf.”
Candidates at the bottom of our rankings have largely remained in place for two months, raising questions about how long they can last. “The race is settling into a top tier and the rest are struggling for campaign dollars,” said Henry Barbour. “The field could thin after the Oct 28 and Nov. 10 debates. Cash flow is becoming a big issue for campaigns.”
Week 8 rankings
1. Donald Trump (Last week: 1)
2. Ben Carson (2)
3. Marco Rubio (3)
4. Ted Cruz (4)
5. Jeb Bush (6)
6. Carly Fiorina (5)
7. John Kasich (7)
8. Chris Christie (8)
9. Rand Paul (10)
10. Mike Huckabee (9)
11. Bobby Jindal (11)
12. Rick Santorum (12)
13. Lindsey Graham (13)
14. George Pataki (14)
15. Jim Gilmore (15)
